My broad research interests are in the areas of environmental and natural resource economics, public policy, welfare economics, ecology, and health. I am particularly interested in water economics and in topics related to the economic value of water and water scarcity management, including resource reallocation using market mechanisms, adaptation to climate change, and the analysis of water law and its impact upon the efficiency of water rights markets.
My dissertation focuses on the analysis of water rights trading in the western U.S. and the role of water rights markets in adapting to the impacts of climate change on the water supply. I seek to understand whether these markets can be an effective instrument in managing varying water supply resources in the western U.S. I examine whether water rights markets in the U.S. are efficient and compare them to other natural resource markets. In addition, I measure the welfare gains from transferring water to different uses and assess whether these gains are higher or lower under water stress. Finally, I identify existing barriers to efficient water rights trading by analyzing the institutional characteristics of various water markets.
In my job market paper, “How well do water markets convey economic information?”, I explore the problem of water supply shortages caused by changes in climate. The ability of markets to reallocate water to its highest-valued uses is uncertain, given known inefficiencies in water markets. To determine how well existing markets respond to water scarcity, I assess the capacity of US western water markets to transmit information through prices. First, I test whether water prices incorporate contemporaneous information about supply and demand consistent with basic economic theory, and I find generally that they do. Next, I estimate a financial asset pricing model to determine whether water market prices incorporate information about expected future returns, and to compare these results to asset pricing results in other natural resource markets. Results suggest that water market prices behave in a manner consistent with asset pricing theory, though these markets do not transmit information as efficiently as much larger and more active markets for fishing quota. An extension applies the asset pricing model to a relatively well-functioning regional water market in a single state, with better results. Taken together, this work suggests that markets can be effective tools for allocating water to its highest-valued uses in the short and the long run, but that, like many environmental markets in practice, in their current form water markets may not achieve the welfare gains predicted by theory.
My working paper, “Water markets: Are gains from trade higher or lower under water stress?”, focuses on welfare gains from reallocating water rights in the semi-arid western U.S. by employing market-based mechanisms. Due to a significant difference in the marginal value of water between the agricultural and urban sectors, the potential gains from trading water rights between the two sectors are significant. However, the ability of water markets to reduce economic losses due to the increases in water scarcity and variability remains unclear. On the one hand, water scarcity might cause markets to emerge and function more efficiently; on the other hand, water shortages could reduce the potential gains from trade, thereby reducing the incentive to develop well-functioning markets. To understand how welfare is impacted by the inter-sectoral water rights trading under conditions of varying water resource availability, I estimate the change in welfare from historical water transfers (1990-2010) between the agricultural and urban sectors in the 12 western states under drier and wetter weather conditions, which allows me to test whether the gains from trade are larger under the higher or lower water supply. Findings suggest that these gains are higher when the water supply is less stressed ($6.4 billion) as opposed to ($2 billion) when water is scarcer. To confirm the importance of water trading, the estimation results of the 25% rationing policy scenario suggest that the welfare losses associated with this policy are 70% smaller when this policy is combined with the inter-sectoral water transfers compared to the decrease in welfare if the inter-sectoral transfers are not present.
In this line of research, I co-authored (with S. Olmstead and K. Fisher-Vanden) a publication, “Climate change and water resources: some adaptation tools and their limits”, Journal of Water Resources Planning and Management (2016).
My other working paper in the same area of research, “A systematic review of water market characteristics in the western U.S.,” addresses the role of institutions in reallocation of water supply in the western U.S. The objective is to comprehend the complexity and heterogeneity of institutional water market characteristics by analyzing them systematically across and within states in the western U.S. I seek to understand the roles played by these characteristics in determining the efficiency of water rights markets. I analyze the multidimensional characteristics of water rights and their transactions by conducting a descriptive case study analysis. First, I identify the market characteristics that define water rights allocation status and transfer processes in the western U.S. Second, I create hypotheses concerning the potential effects of these characteristics on water markets efficiency. Third, I compare these characteristics across six different markets located in Colorado and Texas. The findings suggest that the most important institutional characteristics separating less efficient markets from more efficient ones are whether they i) strictly follow the prior appropriation system, ii) provide opportunities for water rights to be easily transportable, and iii) have a larger or smaller number of market participants.
In other research projects specific to water issues, I have explored the importance of water resources in the context of the natural gas exploration in the eastern U.S. One paper (co-authored with C. Abdalla and B. Swistock) involved the analysis of Pennsylvanian officials’ motivations to lease subsurface mineral rights for natural gas fracking in the Marcellus Shale region (which were obtained through primary data collection via personal interviews). This paper was published in the Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences (2014). Another project in this area of research involved the estimation of the value of water in Marcellus Shale gas extractions in Pennsylvania and West Virginia together with C. Abdalla and A. Collins. We collected primary data from phone interviews with public water providers and found that the average price charged to gas companies was $6.00/1,000 gallons and $7.60/1,000 gallons in WV and PA, respectively. The additional water sales uniformly increased revenues and the financial status of water suppliers. I presented the findings of this work at the annual AGU meeting (2013), and in a webinar, as part of the Penn State extension series on water (2013).
My second line of research focuses on the relationship between ecosystem services and society. More specifically, my working paper titled “Attitudes towards private forest management in the southeastern United States: Do political preferences matter?”, analyzes public attitudes toward private forestland management and the government’s role in this process. In another project in the same area of research, my co-authors and I seek to estimate public demand for forest ecosystem services in the southeastern U.S. and address the value of policies supporting ecosystem services that usually are not measured using market-based mechanisms.
Additionally, I am a co-principle investigator on a recently submitted grant proposal for a study titled “Hunter demand for the management of chronic wasting disease in Pennsylvania’s deer population”, which proposes to assess the effects of chronic wasting disease on a demand for recreational hunting, as well as the society’s trust towards the government’s role in controlling the disease. The travel cost and choice experiment models will be employed to understand changes in hunter preferences.
Looking forward, I intend to continue my scholarly research in the fields of environmental and natural resource economics, focusing on the efficiencies of various resource management techniques, property rights regimes, as well as policies and institutions associated with these resources. I am open to formulating and analyzing new questions and ideas related to applied microeconomics, where I could creatively use my economic knowledge and econometric skills to provide practical guidance to policymakers in improving old and developing new policies. I intend to keep collaborating with experts from multiple fields and institutions and hope to extend the professional connections that I already have.